Until the crash of Ethiopian Airlines Flight 302 on March
10, airlines operating Boeing 737 Max aircraft frequently used marketing
campaigns to boast about the inclusion of the new-generation narrowbody in
their fleets.
Although those days have likely come to an end -- at least
for the foreseeable future -- analysts don't expect flyers to stay away from
Max-operated routes once the aircraft is cleared by the FAA and other airline
safety regulatory authorities to return the skies.
"They are going to assume that if the pilot is willing
to fly that plane, they are going to be safe because it is his life too,"
said Michael Taylor, head of J.D. Power's Travel Intelligence business.
As the worldwide grounding of the 737 Max 8 and Max 9
lingers toward a third week, the aircraft continues to be the subject of heavy
public scrutiny. In the U.S., House transportation committee chairman Peter
DeFazio (D-Ore.) has said he will conduct hearings to examine the relationship
between Boeing and the FAA as well as the FAA's process for approving new
aircraft types.
Separately, DOT secretary Elaine Chao has asked the
department's inspector general to conduct an audit of the FAA's certification
process for the 737 Max amid concerns that the agency is too cozy with Boeing
and has turned over too much of the certification review process to the
aircraft maker itself.
Authorities believe that the Oct. 29 Lion Air crash that
killed 189 people was brought down by erroneous information transmitted from an
aircraft sensor to the plane's automated flight control system, which caused
the plane to nosedive.
Black box data has shown similarities between the recent
Ethiopian crash that killed 157 people and the Lion Air crash, according to the
French aviation safety regulator BEA.
In an open letter last week, Boeing CEO Dennis Muilenburg
said the company will soon release a software update and launch related pilot
training that will address concerns discovered during the investigation of the
Lion Air crash.
"Based on facts from the Lion Air Flight 610 accident
and emerging data as it becomes available from the Ethiopian Airlines Flight
302 accident, we're taking actions to fully ensure the safety of the 737 Max,"
Muilenburg wrote. "We also understand and regret the challenges for our
customers and the flying public caused by the fleet's grounding."
For airlines that operate the Max, those challenges have
been substantial. For example, Air Canada, which had been operating 24 Max 8s
and had planned to take delivery of six more through April, announced on March
19 that it had removed the Max from its schedule through at least July 1. The
Max accounted for 6% of Air Canada's flying, and the airline said that among
the adjustments it is making are frequency reductions on some routes, changes
in operating times and, in a few cases, route suspensions.
Southwest, which flies 34 Max 8s, said that the grounding
forced approximately 150 cancellations per day during its first several days.
Meanwhile, Brazil's Gol is now using a 737-800 and making a fueling stop in
Punta Cana to operate its Brasilia-Orlando route, the longest nonstop Boeing
737 route in the world. The carrier introduced it in November with Max
equipment.
Indeed, Gol is among the many carriers that touted its use
of the Max 8 prior to the Ethiopian crash. In December, the carrier issued a
press release boasting that the Max 8 had enabled it to diversify its route
network and to begin flights to North America. Gol said it planned to introduce
an international destination each quarter for the next two years utilizing the
Max 8, which offers greater fuel efficiency and range than earlier 737s.
Carlos Ozores, principal aviation analyst for the
consultancy ICF, said that such marketing efforts could potentially cause
public fallout from the Max grounding to linger beyond the aircraft's return to
service.
"As customers become more attuned to the type of
aircraft they are flying, and as airlines market that aircraft, the fact that
they've created that awareness can have an impact," he said.
But Ozores added that the long-term impact will ultimately
be determined by how the grounding and the Max's eventual return to the skies
plays out.
"There is potential for this to not get much worse, and
there is also a potential for it to become quite an ordeal," he said.
Peter Harbison, CEO of the CAPA Centre for Aviation, an
Australia-based airline research and market analysis company, noted that Boeing's
787 Dreamliner was grounded in 2013 and has since become one of the most
popular aircraft types ever. But there were no crashes prior to the FAA
grounding the Dreamliner for more than three months due to an issue with
leaking lithium batteries.
In a more analogous situation, the FAA grounded the
McDonnell Douglas DC-10 in 1979 following three crashes. While investigators later
determined that the crashes weren't a result of aircraft design, Harbison said
that in the interim he had decided not to fly on a DC-10 ever again. The pledge
lasted only until he and his family encountered travel difficulties between
Lisbon and Geneva and the only option was to get on a DC-10.
"So, I don't think it will be an issue for the flyer,"
he said.
Ultimately, said J.D. Power's Taylor, airline customers don't
pay much attention to aircraft type.
"The vast majority of passengers have no idea what
aircraft they are getting on," he said.
"My prediction is that once it is deemed safe and
airworthy, passengers aren't going to concern themselves with whether they are
on a 737 Max or a 737-800," Taylor added.