Domestic airfare will gradually increase to 2019 levels over the course of the year as widespread vaccinations cause travel demand to spike, according to a forecast by the travel booking platform Hopper.
International ticket costs, meanwhile, will remain depressed through much of the spring, before spiking sharply by mid-May.
Hopper expects domestic budget airfares to be 20% lower for the first three months of this year than they were in 2019. Fares should be 12% lower than 2019 levels in the second quarter. Both those figures represent upticks from the 2020 average, which was 25% below 2019.
For January, Hopper estimates that what it calls the Good Deal Price for domestic tickets will average $210. The app defines Good Deal fares as the those that are lower than 90% of the fare quotes it tracks.
By March, Hopper expects the Good Deal Price to jump to $240, and for June its estimate is $278.
Though a portion of those expected increases are related to the typical cost bump that comes with summer, the app also expects price increases to be driven by recovery of the travel market and possibly increasing fuel costs for airlines.
Hopper's forecasts are less specific for the second half of 2021, but the company said that domestic ticket prices should continue to increase on a relative basis to 2019. Hopper expects prices for the whole of 2021 to average approximately 10% lower than 2019.
The app developed its forecast using a model that incorporates historical airfare pricing data, search demand data and estimated distribution timelines for the Covid-19 vaccine. Delays in vaccine distribution, Hopper said, would alter the forecast.
On the international front, Hopper expects airfare to increase more gradually relative to 2019 through May, before more widespread vaccination spikes demand. After that, international fares will increase in a more sustained fashion than domestic fares in relation to 2019 prices.
In 2020, the average Good Deal Price on international airfare was $735, 14% lower than 2019.
Hopper expects international tickets to average 12% less than 2019 levels for the first quarter of this year and to be 10% below 2019 levels in the second quarter. For the full year, international airfare will average 5% less than 2019, according to the forecast.