Marriott International executives warned Monday that the U.S. presidential election could have an unprecedented negative impact on fourth-quarter performance.
During Marriott's Q3 earnings call, Marriott CFO Leeny Oberg said the election is predicted to reduce the company's November revenue per available room (RevPAR) in the U.S. and Canada by 3% due to "meaningfully lower transient and group room nights on the books for both this week and next."
For the entire fourth quarter, U.S. and Canada RevPAR is expected to take a 1% hit because of the election, which would be double the impact seen in previous elections, Oberg said.
Marriott CEO Anthony Capuano spoke about negative impact on the company's group business, telling analysts that as of the end of September, global revenue from groups was pacing roughly flat for the fourth quarter due primarily to the election.
A strong Q3 for Marriott
In Q3, Marriott's RevPAR grew over 2% in the U.S. and Canada, driven primarily by growth in average daily rates.
The company also reported stronger performance in luxury and full-service hotels compared to select-service hotels.
Group business emerged as the quarter's top performing segment, said Capuano, with group RevPAR increasing 10% year over year for the second consecutive quarter, driven by increases in both room nights and rates. Looking ahead, group revenue for 2025 is pacing up 7%, reflecting a 3% increase in room nights and a 4% rise in average daily rate.
"Given our industry-leading distribution of convention hotels, at nearly double the number of rooms of the next closest peer, we are pleased that group strength is continuing into next year," said Capuano.
Business travel also showed continued momentum, with business transient RevPAR rising 2% in the quarter.
Meanwhile, leisure transient RevPAR was flat, though Capuano emphasized that the segment was still well above 2019 levels.
On the international front, RevPAR grew 5% outside the U.S., with particular strength in Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA), as well as Asia Pacific (excluding China), with both regions posting 9% RevPAR increases. Greater China, however, saw RevPAR decline 8% in the third quarter, which Capuano attributed to macroeconomic pressures, weak domestic leisure demand, pricing challenges and severe weather impact.
For the quarter, Marriott's systemwide RevPAR increased 3% year over year to $131.72, driven by a 2.5% increase in ADR to $182.24, and a rise in occupancy from 72% to 72.3%.
The company reported net income of $584 million and an 8% rise in adjusted EBITDA, to $1.2 billion.