Only a year ago, most U.S. citizens saw no end to the period of
peace and prosperity they had enjoyed for almost a decade. Suddenly
and dramatically, the peace was shattered, and for many, prosperity
began to recede. Today we live amidst a "war on terror" and talk
about the possibility of a war with Iraq. Is this a temporary
setback for the travel industry, or have we taken a fork in the
road that leads us in an entirely new direction? Some industry
leaders think we're moving into uncharted territory.
Hal Rosenbluth: I had to make five calls to
five CEOs on Sept. 11, sharing with them that they had one of their
people on one of the flights. I think we all intuitively knew on
that day that the world as we knew it had just changed.
I think Sept. 11 was the beginning of a series of events -- it
was not the last. As a result, I think we have a new norm, the
definition of which has not been written yet. In everyone's
forecasting and contingency plans, we recognize that, whether it be
the possibility of going to war in Iraq, or another terrorist
attack, there'll be events to follow.
I hate to add a further ominous note, but it's not just the
event of a war with Iraq.
Unfortunately, [anxiety about travel is] going to start the
first time the public becomes aware of any buildup toward war with
Iraq. And we all know that [before] the Gulf War, there was a very
long buildup. The moment that begins, the media will begin to come
out with, this is not a war just with Iraq, this is now a war with
Iraq and all terrorists who are aligned with Iraq. And that will be
what will create the fear of travel, because then it is no longer
geographic to just Iraq. It becomes global in nature.
We will adjust our companies accordingly if there is any war
with Iraq, but I think first and foremost we'll think of what's in
the best interests of our country and families as opposed to the
effect it's going to have on our particular business.
Adam Aron: The big story isn't the first year
after 9/11, it's going to be the second and third. If there is a
major war in the Middle East or the subcontinent, that could be
cataclysmic for the U.S. travel industry. And if there is some kind
of second terrorist strike of the magnitude of 9/11, it would spook
U.S. consumers.
If you go back to 1990-1991, during the Gulf War, international
travel stopped and companies in the travel industry were badly
hurt.
The signs are ominous for the U.S. travel industry as we sit
here today because our elected leaders are certainly not talking
about peace. They're talking about war.
Maybe we'll get lucky and avoid a war, maybe we won't. If we
move to a real shooting war, or a second terrorist strike on the
U.S., or a war that leads to a second terrorist strike on the U.S.,
there is no doubt that it will have a devastating impact on the
industry.
The question is, how long will that devastating impact last?
Katerina Pavlitova: The effect of a war with
Iraq would be devastating to American travel to Europe. Europe
would look for alternative source countries. And it's already
happening.
They're looking in Asia. China is an emerging market. Actually,
interestingly for the Czech Republic, Israeli tourists [now
outnumber] American tourists.
I am afraid that what might eventually happen is, after however
long the war might take, when Americans would like to go back to
Europe, there will not be the marketing support on the European
side.
For additional coverage, see:
• Travel execs see industry at a crossroads
• Travel industry shows signs of resilience
• Airlines still in crisis mode one year later
• Yields pay price for heavy discounting
• Turbulent times force Europe to shift focus
• TW agent poll: Better times are coming