Today marks the one-year anniversary of
the tragic events of Sept. 11. The travel industry has tried its
best in the past 12 months to raise the comfort level of wary
travelers in hopes of jump-starting a battered industry. A cautious
optimism has been growing slowly but steadily among travel agents
over that time, according to a new and exclusive research study
conducted for Travel Weekly.
Where we were
During the weeks prior to Sept. 11, 2001, 83% of travel agents
described the state of the travel industry as "positive." Not
surprisingly, a full 87% said the state of the industry was
"negative" in the weeks just after Sept. 11.
Where we're headed
Nearly half (49%) of travel agents described the current state
of the travel industry as positive -- up dramatically from only 8%
who described it as positive just after Sept. 11, 2001. Although
this outlook is expected to remain virtually unchanged over the
next three months, 66% of agents said the outlook for the travel
industry will be positive six months from now. And looking ahead to
a year from now, three-quarters (75%) of agents gave this
response.
Indeed, Travel Weekly's own Travel Agent Confidence Index
clocked in at 2.7 during the weeks just before Sept. 11 -- the
closer that number is to 5, the greater confidence agents have in
the industry. The Confidence Index hit a low of -3.25 just after
Sept. 11. However, our research revealed that agents' confidence
grows steadily when they are asked to predict the outlook for the
travel industry at regular intervals throughout the next 12
months.
Agents don't expect too much short-term change, however: Their
confidence index measured just 0.26 for three months out -- only
marginally above their perception of where the industry is today
(-0.1).
However, when asked about six months or a year from now, the
Confidence Index steadily rose to 1.1 and 1.8, respectively. Of
course, confidence is ephemeral and could waver in the face of
unforeseen circumstances, but travel agents display a measured
optimism that things will get better as time moves on.
Segment by segment
Although bookings for segments such as air or overall business
travel are still lower than pre-Sept. 11 levels, cruises and
domestic tour packages appear to have rebounded somewhat. Nearly
three in 10 agents (29%) said cruises and nearly a quarter (23%)
said domestic tour packages are booking at levels higher than just
before Sept. 11, 2001.
We also asked agents who said certain industry segments were at
booking levels lower than before Sept. 11 when they thought those
segments would recover. Our research suggests continued growth for
cruises and domestic tour packages.
Additionally, hotel bookings should see an uptick in the next
three to six months, according to a majority (52%) of those who
said bookings for this category are still down. Agents predicted
business travel will not begin to approach pre-Sept. 11 levels for
another 12 months or longer (79%). And one-third (34%) didn't think
airline bookings will ever approach pre-Sept. 11 levels.
When the day is done, however, agents said they believe the
economy, not terrorism, has the greater effect on the travel
industry. Sixty-five percent said the domestic economy and 58% said
the stock market has a great effect on the state of the travel
industry. This compares with 54% who said domestic terrorism and
48% who said international terrorism has a great effect on travel.
Inconvenience caused by increased security procedures (18%) ranks
last in a field of 10 attributes that could affect travel.
Travel concerns
Overall, agents believe that in recent months their customers
have become less concerned about traveling than a year ago.
According to agents, as travel concerns decreased, customers have
shifted focus to the U.S. economy (58%), the stock market (50%) and
the job market (32%). The survey suggests, therefore, that although
terrorism gave the travel industry a major jolt in the past 12
months, it will take a more robust economy and the loosening of
business purse strings before the industry as a whole gets back on
track. Broadly interpreting these findings, agents see that
turnaround coming between six and 12 months from today.
The survey was fielded on line among Travel Weekly readers
between Aug. 19 and 22. Respondents were asked a short series of
questions regarding the state of, and predictions for, the travel
industry. In all, 517 readers responded to this poll.
The Travel Weekly Travel Agent Confidence Index is obtained
by taking the mean score from a series of questions that asked
travel agents to rank their view of the state of the travel
industry on a scale from +5 to -5.
For additional coverage, see:
• Travel execs see industry at a crossroads
• Post-Sept.11, a new norm is taking shape
• Travel industry shows signs of resilience
• Airlines still in crisis mode one year later
• Yields pay price for heavy discounting
• Turbulent times force Europe to shift focus