The terrorism and political chaos that has rocked Turkey this year looms large over the aggressive expansion plans of Turkish Airlines.

The world’s 13th largest carrier in terms of capacity, according to IATA, Turkish grew in size by an additional 19% in the first quarter. In contrast, IATA forecasts just 7.4% growth industrywide this year.

Turkish said that by the end of 2016, it will be the world’s 10th largest airline, with a global market share of 2.1%.

But while analysts don’t dismiss Turkish’s chances for success, they said that the carrier will have to overcome July’s failed political coup, the terrorist attack on Istanbul’s Ataturk Airport in June and a string of other terrorist attacks that are scaring tourists off in droves.

“Obviously the political situation in Turkey will affect them greatly, but it’s anyone’s guess how that will pan out,” said U.K.-based aviation analyst Barry Humphreys.

With tourism in Turkey already reeling, Turkish recorded a loss of $421 million during the first three months of 2016, compared with a $153 million profit a year earlier.

That figure could get worse if its revenue tracks the plunge in tourism to Turkey. The number of foreigners who arrived in the country was off 28% in April and almost 35% in May, after smaller drops during the first three months of 2016.

Meanwhile, June was the worst month of the year for Istanbul hotels, with occupancy falling 26 points from the previous June, to 40%. Revenue per available room plunged 59%, to $39.

And those dismal numbers don’t reflect the fallout from the June 28 attack on Ataturk, which left more than 40 people dead. Nor do they reflect the new declines that will almost surely result from the failed military coup attempt against Turkey president Recep Tayyip Erdogan on July 15.

In the aftermath of that coup attempt, the FAA shut down all flights between the U.S. and Turkey for three days.

As Turkey’s tourism industry faces cataclysm, the business model of Turkish Airlines could prove to be a saving grace. While the carrier serves direct tourism to Turkey, it focuses more heavily on connecting international travelers through centrally located Istanbul.

During the first quarter, 59% of international passengers who flew Turkish were stopping in Istanbul only to catch a flight to another destination, company figures showed. The airline services 290 airports around the world, including 241 outside of Turkey. Its robust network of 128 countries includes significant presences on every continent except South America, Australia and Antarctica.

Turkish serves nine markets in the U.S., offering daily flights to Istanbul from San Francisco, Los Angeles, Houston Bush, Chicago O’Hare, Washington Dulles, Boston, Atlanta and Miami as well as three daily flights from New York.

In fact, Turkish serves more countries than any of the much-discussed Gulf carriers Emirates, Qatar and Etihad.

But even Turkish’s connecting business could take a hit for now, said Mike Boyd, president of aviation consultancy group Boyd Group International.

“They are going to have to sit back and try to get through it,” he said.

Turkish Airlines declined requests for comment for this story. But Boyd said that the airline should push forward with its expansion plans despite the difficult circumstances.

“They have built a hugely positive reputation for reliability, for service, for quality. So the airline itself is a leader in that,” he said. “It’s just where they are located. They had a terrorist attack and a coup, and that cuts down on the number of people from Omaha who want to connect through there. My gut is that they are doing the right thing. They can’t just climb under a rock and hope that everything will get better.”

If the carrier can ride out the storm, its persistence could bring a pot of gold.

Last year, Ataturk serviced 61.3 million passengers, making it the third largest gateway in Europe, behind only London Heathrow and Paris de Gaulle, according to the publication Airport World. But with Ataturk nearly at full capacity, Turkey is currently building an $11.2 billion airport outside Istanbul that will ultimately handle an annual capacity of 150 million passengers.

However, Brett Snyder, who runs the aviation blog Cranky Flier, questioned whether the airline will be able to sustain its growth without major boosts from the government, which owns just under 50% of the carrier.

“As long as Erdogan sees fit to continue to push Turkish as a fast-growing airline, he can do it. And he can fund it,” Snyder wrote in a post this week. “If Turkish needs to be a profitable business, however, that’s going to be a real challenge.”

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