Although a recent surge of interest in commercial piloting
has improved recruitment efforts, some industry insiders argue that there needs
to be more federal loan availability for aspiring pilots if airlines are to
ward off a pilot shortage that has already exacted a toll on U.S. regional
carriers.
"There is going to have to be a complete or partial
government solution to this," said Kit Darby, whose KitDarby.com Aviation
Consulting focuses on pilot career services. "We have all these pilots we are
going to need."
By next year, the University of North Dakota’s 2016 Pilot
Supply Forecast predicts, the U.S. will have a shortage of 3,500 commercial
pilots.
Causes of the shortage vary. On the supply side, many
potential pilots looked elsewhere after airlines put a delay on hiring as a
result of the 2008 recession. They were also discouraged by low starting pay at
regional carriers and by the onset in 2013 of a rule increasing the minimum
number of flight-training hours for commercial pilots from 250 to 1,500.
Interest in commercial piloting has recovered in the past
couple of years, however, as regional airlines have upped average first-year
pay by 200%, to $57,000, since 2014, according to Darby.
Meanwhile, both mainline and regional carriers have
implemented pathway programs designed to provide a defined route from
university and vocational pilot-training programs to jobs at airlines.
As a result, universities and flight-training schools are
experiencing a boom. For example, this year the Daytona Beach campus of
Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University reached the enrollment cap for its
pilot-training degree program for the first time in nearly 30 years.
Still, industry growth and a spate of upcoming mandatory
retirements have fueled concerns of a deepening pilot shortfall over time. This
year, some 2,000 pilots at major airlines will reach the mandatory retirement
age of 65. That figure will increase to 3,000 annually from 2023 through 2026,
according to the University of North Dakota forecast.
Industry growth is also driving demand for new pilots.
Boeing forecasts that the U.S. will need 212,000 new civil aviation pilots over
the next 20 years, with approximately 80% of them needed for commercial flying.
United alone expects to hire 10,000 pilots by 2029 due to
retirements, attrition and projected growth.
In recruiting new pilots, airlines can point to the
profession's high income potential. Over the course of a 30- to 35-year career,
pilots can expect to earn between $10.5 million and $13 million, according to
data provided by Darby.
Still, entry into the industry is financially challenging.
Completing a four-year university program along with the flight hours required
for an Airline Transport Pilot (ATP) certificate typically costs $150,000 to
$200,000. And while pilots can obtain an ATP license for less than that through
a vocational flight-training school, airlines still typically want their pilots
to have college degrees of some kind because, Darby said, "It shows you can
study and learn in an intense environment."
Faye Malarkey Black, president of the Regional Airline
Association (RAA), said that the high costs have the effect of excluding many potential
pilots, especially if they come from disadvantaged backgrounds.
"We hear time and time again from people who have an
interest in it that they cannot possibly become a pilot because they simply
can't afford it," she said.
Compounding financing issues for aspiring pilots are the
limits of federal student loan programs.
For the most part, flight-training schools aren't eligible
to connect students to Title IV federal loans, said Andrew Pentis, a certified
student loan counselor with Student Loan Hero. That can be a problem for people
of all sorts of financial means, since it excludes them from the low-interest
borrowing, delayed repayment programs and income-based repayment programs
offered by the federal government.
But, Pentis said, it creates special challenges for
lower-income individuals, who lose out on the possibility of receiving
federally supported grants or subsidized loans and who don’t have the credit
scores to take out a student loan in the private market.
Even for those seeking to attend a university pilot-school
program, however, the Title IV program can be inadequate. Students are capped
at $57,500 in federal loans over the course of their studies, which is often
less than a third of the total cost of obtaining an ATP certificate. Furthermore,
the loans don't apply to cockpit-training hours.
The cost barriers to pilot entry have prompted airlines to
begin taking small steps of their own toward assistance. Notably, regional
carrier Republic Airways, which opened its Lift flight-training academy last
year, is subsidizing the cost of that training by approximately $20,000 in
exchange for a commitment to work at the airline, chief administrative officer
Matt Koscal said in a September interview.
Mainline airlines have thus far steered clear of including
direct financial or loan assistance in their pathway programs. However, at a
recent gathering of reporters, United executive vice president of human
resources and labor relations Kate Gebo said the carrier is looking into
scholarships, subsidized training and loan guarantees.
Darby said he expects to see mainline carriers begin
offering such assistance as the pilot shortage becomes more acute. Still, both
he and the RAA say it's the federal government that is best positioned to
address the cost barriers to becoming a pilot.
"We have to have a broader solution to get more pilots more
quickly," Darby said. "It's not likely we can get people fast enough on an
individual school or airline basis, and if we don't do it, then we restrict our
airlines' ability to fly."
Black said the RAA is calling for two types of steps from
the federal government.
First, the organization wants mechanisms in place that will
make it easier for vocational flight-training schools to get accredited within
the Title IV loan program.
Second, the RAA is calling for legislation to create new
federally backed loans that would cover the costs of obtaining flight hours and
would allow for loan forbearance during the time that aspiring pilots are
obtaining those hours.