The timing could be ripe for another substantial merger in the U.S. airline industry.
Industry forecasters, from investment analysts to the CEOs of Delta and United, are predicting that high fuel costs could drive consolidation, either by merger or business failure.
Meanwhile, on April 7, DOT secretary Sean Duffy sent out something of a clarion call to the industry.
"Is there room for some mergers in the aviation industry? Yeah, I think there is," Duffy said in a CNBC interview.
Analysts say Duffy's comments should be viewed as much more than extemporaneous musings.
"He's not a typical cagey politician," said Gary Leff, author of the View From the Wing blog. "He's fairly candid on his views, and I think his views are reflective of where he thinks the administration is."
The Department of Justice, which reviews competition and antitrust issues, is the primary regulator of U.S. airline mergers. The DOT also gets to weigh in, having the final say on whether the international route approvals of each carrier can be combined under the merged operator.
While the general posture of an administration toward mergers can change with each occupant of the White House, the antitrust review process is typically an arms-length one. Duffy, though, said a large merger would have to be reviewed directly by Trump.
"As Chevy Chase said in 'Fletch,' there have been changes in the law," Leff quipped, referencing the 1985 film.
One concrete sign that the Trump administration is indeed amendable to mergers came in March, when the DOJ green-lighted Allegiant's acquisition of Sun Country without requiring the airlines to wait the standard 30 days.
Duffy said that a merger approval would be predicated on its impact on consumers and competition as well as on how it would impact U.S. global competitiveness. He added that some mergers could potentially be approved in conjunction with asset divestitures.
Leading merger candidates
Financially challenged JetBlue, which has a well-respected in-flight product; strong East Coast and Caribbean network; and valuable gates and landing rights at capacity-constrained Fort Lauderdale, New York JFK and LaGuardia, is one strong candidate to be bought up, experts said.
Last month, the news site Semafor, citing anonymous sources, reported that JetBlue was evaluating the potential of a sale to United, Alaska or Southwest.
Struggling ultralow-cost carriers Spirit and Frontier could also be targets for acquisition or could still move ahead with an often-discussed merger with each other. But Spirit, working to emerge from a second bankruptcy since late 2024, has long been on the auction block. Frontier, meanwhile, has no obvious buyer, according to Bloomberg Intelligence analyst George Ferguson.
And a major wildcard is talk of a United combination with American, though approval of a merger of such behemoths, which together comprise 39.2% of the U.S. domestic marketplace, would face a steep climb to achieve regulatory approval. Bloomberg, citing anonymous sources, reported on April 14 that United CEO Scott Kirby bent President Trump's ear on the subject during a February meeting.
American, United, Southwest and Alaska would each have compelling reasons to pursue JetBlue, Leff said. For American, the acquisition would provide girth to a New York metroplex footprint that is a distant third behind Delta and United.
For United, buying JetBlue, which is the largest carrier in Fort Lauderdale, would provide new strength in Florida, while augmenting its Newark hub with a strong New York presence.
Southwest, which transformed its commercial model over the past year to more closely resemble American, Delta and United, could also benefit from more landing rights in the New York market, where its presence is small.
Ferguson, though, questioned whether JetBlue tie-ups with American or United would be too large to achieve antitrust approval. He views Southwest-JetBlue as more viable.
A case for Alaska-JetBlue
He sees an Alaska-JetBlue merger as particularly compelling; Alaska has a substantial Western U.S. network with some transpacific offerings, and it will launch transatlantic service this month.
Acquiring JetBlue would give Alaska a strong East Coast and Caribbean network, grow its transatlantic offering and position it as a fifth major U.S. airline and a fourth U.S. global carrier. The pairing would also likely achieve regulatory approval, since the airlines' route networks have little overlap.
On the downside, Ferguson said, is that the purchase would strain Alaska's resources as it continues integrating with Hawaiian following their 2024 merger.
But timing might force Alaska CEO Ben Minicucci to swing for the fences.
"He would be pushing his balance sheet further than they have before, and I'm sure that would make them uncomfortable," Ferguson said. "But if he wants to grow Alaska considerably during his tenure, this is a chip I think he can't let go away."
As for United merging with American, strong opposition could be expected from state attorneys general and the rest of the industry, even if the Trump administration signaled its blessing, investment analyst Tom Fitzgerald of TD Cowen wrote this week.
But J.P. Morgan analysts Jamie Baker and Mark Streeter said the concept shouldn't be dismissed, though significant divestitures would be required.
"Aside from the size, United-American makes sense to us," they wrote, citing the benefits further consolidation could have for U.S. airline industry fundamentals.